Coronovirus and lockdown

[solarman216]

So OK this is not 4X4 but we are a group of like minded people.

So my question is who on here think like me.

In that I think this lock down has done absolutely nothing to control the virus but done every thing to destroy the economy for decades to come, once we emerge from this episode who thinks we will be back to normal and what time scale, thoughts please, Rick

 

[macabethiel]

Thats a big question Rick.

So OK this is not 4X4 but we are a group of like minded people.

So my question is who on here think like me.

In that I think this lock down has done absolutely nothing to control the virus but done every thing to destroy the economy for decades to come, once we emerge from this episode who thinks we will be back to normal and what time scale, thoughts please, Rick

My understanding is that the lock down was to stop the NHS being overwhelmed with Covid19 patients who would need a respirator. The aim was to make the numbers seriously ill able to get a bed in intensive care. It was never about reducing the overall numbers who contracted the virus but to spread the number over a longer period of time by flattening the curve so the NHS was not overwhelmed.

Without the lockdown the NHS would have been unable to manage the sheer numbers as the cases doubled every two days. It's a bit of a trade off as the NHS still has to manage the usual emergency admissions at the same time so by cancelling routine operations this gave them the capacity to expand the number of ventilators in existing hospitals. The other part of the lock down also bought time to build the nightingale units.

I think we will be in lockdown until the end of May with perhaps some partial lifting in mid May if the hospital admissions start to fall substantially. As a rough estimate almost half of those in ICU beds are dying. Deaths outside of Hospital admissions are estimated to be another 50% on top. The real figures for deaths by Covid19 will probably not emerge until its all over unless the usual monthly reported deaths can be calculated daily.

I don't believe the figures now coming out of China are true. When the lock down has been completely lifted we will I think continue to have infections & deaths until a vaccine is found. Not sure how Herd immunity works but that will also help as the number of infected people recover in significant numbers within our population.

As so many economies around the world have been affected I am pretty sure like the US & the UK there will be some substantial quantitative easing to help the economy. You are right Rick it will still leave a massive debt for both individuals and the Government.

Even the glorious German Euro is going to suffer so it will be interesting to see if the Eurozone just print more money as well. Free of the EU I think we will do as well as others countries within the EU if not better.

If we have two months lock down and firms scrap any holiday entitlements this would help as we return to work and reboot the economy. I suspect that financially it will take us a couple of years at least to get employment back to where it was in January. The debt burden will be a much longer problem - at least 10 years is my guess.

As I am retired the impact on our household will be the loss of value of our assets including house value and the effects of inflation. I wonder if the Government might issue some sort of "Covid19 Investment Bond" like they did during wartime with "War Bonds" to enable investments in our own future ?

 

[macabethiel]

Another 3 weeks that takes us to the 7th May then.

Message within the NHS seems to be that the peak deaths are at least a week away.

 

[solarman216]

So had we not had the lock down where would we be now re death rate? simple answer to that is we do not know,it may well have been far higher, but when this is over and the toll takes into account the suicides from many that cannot take loss of job, house and no prospects, Rick

 

[Wallace]

A friend of mine works at an Undertaker and their freezer is at capacity, he is working ridiculous hours for the company to cope and it's mainly out of hours collections in the community. If you don't stop the spread then you need temporary Morgues or start cremating people without service from home or Hospital bed as opposed to temporary Hospitals.

Slowing the spread by reducing contact makes sense to gain time and improve an NHS and a country that is not geared up for a pandemic and such a death toll that may exceed WWII. Left to run rife I think the economy would fall apart on it's own.

 

[Fez_uk]

So had we not had the lock down where would we be now re death rate? simple answer to that is we do not know

We will in a couple of weeks, Brazil seems like they are not doing much to stop it. Will give an indication at least.

 

[macabethiel]

Age demographics in Brazil are much younger population.

We will in a couple of weeks, Brazil seems like they are not doing much to stop it. Will give an indication at least.

Trouble is will there be genuine figures published ?

I see China has just admitted to an additional 1500 deaths - I think that's the tip of their Iceberg tbh.

 

[Fez_uk]

Trouble is will there be genuine figures published ?

No but it will give us and rick an idea. Information will get out.

this lock down has done absolutely nothing to control the virus but done every thing to destroy the economy

 

[solarman216]

I just look at my regular comings and goings and the general way most people are are handling this situation and cannot really see much difference in so called "social distancing" so as far as I can see we might just as well of carried on as normal, Rick

 

[solarman216]

As far as I can see those in charge have not got a clue, but more importantly do not give a monkeys anyway as they are all set for life financially whatever happens to the country, I tell you now if they were all in danger of loosing their jobs and homes very different decisions would be made, Rick

 

[macabethiel]

Big difference in my area.

I just look at my regular comings and goings and the general way most people are are handling this situation and cannot really see much difference in so called "social distancing" so as far as I can see we might just as well of carried on as normal, Rick

Well here where I live the first obvious change is the traffic it's almost zero compared to normal. When I take Wendy to work at the Surgery a distance of about two miles there would be a queue about 500-800 yards long to the first roundabout on Pastures Hill- it's now rarely more than 2 or 3 vehicles at the same time in the morning. A journey that used to take 25-35 minutes now takes under 5 mins.

Social distancing in our shops is spot on with marked floors and queuing areas - Aldi have a staff member outside to ensure the social distancing is adhered to. Local Co-op store has screens like a bank at the counters.

Pedestrians cross over the road rather than pass on the pavements. It's less so when you get into Derby City suburbs but traffic and pedestrians are definitely substantially reduced. The likes of Screwfix are click and collect with Screwfix in Burton being very well organised. You don't enter the store as there is a table in front of the entrance, as you approach you give them your name and the box is brought out to you in less than half a minute. The customers keep well away from each other and the staff step back when you pick up your order.

Not seen any sign of Police Traffic stops, the A50 & A38 dual carriageways have very few cars just DGV's & Vans.

 

[macabethiel]

Big Financial Impact on some of my friends

A close friend ours works for Swissport at East Midlands Airport his wife is a Childrens Nursery worker both have been laid of with no wages being paid having been paid, three children at home with two still at school.

He has not been furloughed just hours reduced to zero not even paid for those he worked in March - he fears that Swissport will go bankrupt.

 

[solarman216]

Well here where I live the first obvious change is the traffic it's almost zero compared to normal. When I take Wendy to work at the Surgery a distance of about two miles there would be a queue about 500-800 yards long to the first roundabout on Pastures Hill- it's now rarely more than 2 or 3 vehicles at the same time in the morning. A journey that used to take 25-35 minutes now takes under 5 mins.

Social distancing in our shops is spot on with marked floors and queuing areas - Aldi have a staff member outside to ensure the social distancing is adhered to. Local Co-op store has screens like a bank at the counters.

Pedestrians cross over the road rather than pass on the pavements. It's less so when you get into Derby City suburbs but traffic and pedestrians are definitely substantially reduced. The likes of Screwfix are click and collect with Screwfix in Burton being very well organised. You don't enter the store as there is a table in front of the entrance, as you approach you give them your name and the box is brought out to you in less than half a minute. The customers keep well away from each other and the staff step back when you pick up your order.

Not seen any sign of Police Traffic stops, the A50 & A38 dual carriageways have very few cars just DGV's & Vans.

Does anybody seriously think that this social distance thing is doing any good ffs, get real it is total bollocks, Rick

 

[solarman216]

A close friend ours works for Swissport at East Midlands Airport his wife is a Childrens Nursery worker both have been laid of with no wages being paid having been paid, three children at home with two still at school.

He has not been furloughed just hours reduced to zero not even paid for those he worked in March - he fears that Swissport will go bankrupt.

So much for lying government support, all speak and no do, how can people be so taken in by this rubbish, when it was stated that no one would be left destitute by this lock down I knew it was all crap and it has been proved so, Rick

 

[macabethiel]

It's basic Virus Pathways that are well understood.

Does anybody seriously think that this social distance thing is doing any good ffs, get real it is total bollocks, Rick

I beg to differ like many viruses it is caught by being in close proximity to people who are infected and at the infectious stage of the disease.

It's not from drinking contaminated water, being bitten by an insect, by 5G it's as above.

Our friend Yvonne who died - her husband had it a few days later but not as severe - he is in self isolation.

What will ruin everything is if a large number ignore the social distancing rules and cause more avoidable infection.

 

[macabethiel]

At least the government is doing positive things.

So much for lying government support, all speak and no do, how can people be so taken in by this rubbish, when it was stated that no one would be left destitute by this lock down I knew it was all crap and it has been proved so, Rick

I think you are missing the sheer magnitude / scale of what is required to help people there will always be people who slip through the systems that have to be robust enough to reduce the fraud that will definitely happen.

Its easy to sit back and accuse the government of lying and inaction - you only have to listen to the questions from the Media at the daily Government Press Briefings. I reproduce below text from Social Media I agree with most of the text.

How about a press conference where the senior reporter/anchor for each of the mainstream channels are on the podiums taking questions from the intelligent public?

My question to Laura Kuensberg and the others would be........ why do you keep asking questions that are too early for an accurate answer, why are you intent on laying blame at our governments door for a global pandemic when the nation on the whole has nothing but admiration for their handling of this crisis and has pride in our country, and in our heroic NHS staff? Every country is having the same issues with supply and demand for PPE and testing kits?
Why aren’t you better utilising your skills on the streets and In The parks and public places asking those who are flouting the social distancing rules why they are putting themselves and others at risk by not staying at home?
Your pointless and relentless questions to the government and medical advisors pushing for timelines and guarantees, are wasting their time when that time could be put to much better use in trying to get those answers that you desperately seek?
Please just let the experts and advisors get on with job and report back when they have something to tell us all.

This government. Boris until his hospitalisation, and Dominic Raab taking the helm in his absence are doing a great job in the most difficult of circumstances since the Falklands war. Please just take some time to applaud the great thing they are doing instead of honing in on your perception of their failings.
Our front line NHS staff and key workers are getting on with it, improvising where necessary. Their biggest gripe is people ignoring the advices on social distancing and being out instead of staying home.

Reporters. Please just reign it in a bit.
Rant over.

 

[solarman216]

I respect your views Ted but do have to disagree, the promised financial help is taking far too long, none of the businesses that I personally have associations with, have yet to receive a penny, and I am talking 30 employees each, they are working skeleton staff doing takeaway and delivery, due to the timing of this lockdown they had ordered and paid for Mothers day stock, like £10k worth and as you know Mothers day did not happen, so these businesses are on their knees, as for the so called social distancing, well I have been out working/shopping etc every day since it started and round here yes the roads are nice and quiet but people are still mingling pretty much as normal, I personally meet dozens of people every day at close distance ie 300mm and still shake hands with people I know, and am not aware that Bexhill has any more cases than any other place, I base my info on what I see not what I am told, where we live is in the sticks with a fenced off footpath running the length of our 1 acre plot, in the past if we saw 6 walkers per year it would be normal, since this started we have seen dozens and dozens and in groups of 6 to 8 as well and we think nothing of standing by the fence and chatting to these people face to face, so you tell me if this is not a complete over reaction and a government that is chasing its tail and does not know what to do, Rick

 

[solarman216]

A friend of mine works at an Undertaker and their freezer is at capacity, he is working ridiculous hours for the company to cope and it's mainly out of hours collections in the community. If you don't stop the spread then you need temporary Morgues or start cremating people without service from home or Hospital bed as opposed to temporary Hospitals.

Slowing the spread by reducing contact makes sense to gain time and improve an NHS and a country that is not geared up for a pandemic and such a death toll that may exceed WWII. Left to run rife I think the economy would fall apart on it's own.

You could be right but I am not convinced, I really do not think that this lock down has made one iota of a difference based on the fact that people are still mingling, this is fact not hearsay, Rick

 

[Fubbytucker]

SOME people are still mingling, more aren't. Yes it would be vastly more effective if everyone played the game but there are always going to be idiots that cause problems for other people.
You might think it's a load of balls, that's your opinion. My opinion is that your opinion is balls.
I'm seeing on the frontline the effects of this virus. I've lost friends and colleagues to it, and am personally aware of many others. This isn't just taking the elderly and the weak, it's taking previously fit and healthy people too.
The issue isn't that the lockdown plan is pointless, it's that it should be enforced with more teeth, and should have started sooner.

 

[solarman216]

Sorry completely disagree but there you go , Rick