Coronovirus and lockdown

[solarman216]

In the paper today, 50,000 cancer patients may die if we do not lift this lockdown soon, sort of puts the 20,000 corona deaths in the shade or what? Rick

 

[solarman216]

Add to that the likely suicides and other life threatening conditions not currently being treated, and you begin to see that to save lives we need to get back to work now, only my opinion i hasten to add but think about it, Rick

 

[macabethiel]

That's just not true Rick the figures are false the clue is "MAY"

In the paper today, 50,000 cancer patients may die if we do not lift this lockdown soon, sort of puts the 20,000 corona deaths in the shade or what? Rick

Cancer treatments are still being done pretty much as usual.

it's just some journalist making up another scare story by extrapolating data from some delays to treatment.

The Covid 19 deaths are far from over Rick expect the final figures to substantially exceed 30,000 is my guess. The surgery where Wendy works usually has one patient death in an week on average.

If we are halfway through the worst this weekend then we are looking at double the total figures when we hit the peak. The deaths will fall off with a similar slope to the rise,

Wendy was quite upset when she got home today - this week it has been 5 deaths up to Wednesday. That's a massive increase in weekly deaths.

 

[solarman216]

Fair point Ted thanks, Rick

 

[don simon]

Cancer treatments are still being done pretty much as usual.

it's just some journalist making up another scare story by extrapolating data from some delays to treatment.

The Covid 19 deaths are far from over Rick expect the final figures to substantially exceed 30,000 is my guess. The surgery where Wendy works usually has one patient death in an week on average.

If we are halfway through the worst this weekend then we are looking at double the total figures when we hit the peak. The deaths wall fall off with a similar slope to the rise,

Wendy was quite upset when she got home today - this week it has been 5 deaths up to Wednesday. That's a massive increase in weekly deaths.

Those numbers are both shocking and saddening. They are so much worse than should have been as we know that stricter lockdown, sooner and widespread testing would have significantly reduced them.

 

[Flying Torquewrench]

Those numbers are both shocking and saddening. They are so much worse than should have been as we know that stricter lockdown, sooner and widespread testing would have significantly reduced them.

The issue with an earlier and stricter lockdown is the risk of a second or even a third wave increases.

 

[macabethiel]

Those numbers are both shocking and saddening. They are so much worse than should have been as we know that stricter lockdown, sooner and widespread testing would have significantly reduced them.

Trouble is would the public have responded in the same way if there had been very few UK deaths but instead we imposed a lockdown based on other countries figures not our own?

Looking at the difficulty in getting the testing levels up even now not sure we could have done it sooner.

Until a vaccine is available the reality might be that the deaths will continue as people get infected at the slower rate infection rate so far achieved. Even with social distancing and lockdown its about the rate of infection rather than an end game of overall reduction in deaths.

As an infectious virus we will continue to be at risk of being infected in the future until a vaccine is found. My understanding is that Herd Immunity will kick in when a significantly large proportion of the population have been infected and have recovered.

When the Pandemic has ended it will be interesting to see why some countries had much lower infection rates. It appears to be the case that some areas or even countries have more virulent forms of the virus possibly due to either small mutations in the virus itself or people becoming exposed to high infection situations such as in Hospitals / Care Homes etc. It might be down to the actual infection cluster at the time of contact - catch a few molecules as opposed to a group that overwhelms you.

Hindsight is 20/20 vision.

 

[don simon]

The issue with an earlier and stricter lockdown is the risk of a second or even a third wave increases.

Which, of course, we still have. Except with fewer deaths because we've killed them all in the first wave.

 

[don simon]

Trouble is would the public have responded in the same way if there had been very few UK deaths but instead we imposed a lockdown based on other countries figures not our own?

Looking at the difficulty in getting the testing levels up even now not sure we could have done it sooner.

Until a vaccine is available the reality might be that the deaths will continue as people get infected at the slower rate infection rate so far achieved. Even with social distancing and lockdown its about the rate of infection rather than an end game of overall reduction in deaths.

As an infectious virus we will continue to be at risk of being infected in the future until a vaccine is found. My understanding is that Herd Immunity will kick in when a significantly large proportion of the population have been infected and have recovered.

When the Pandemic has ended it will be interesting to see why some countries had much lower infection rates. It appears to be the case that some areas or even countries have more virulent forms of the virus possibly due to either small mutations in the virus itself or people becoming exposed to high infection situations such as in Hospitals / Care Homes etc. It might be down to the actual infection cluster at the time of contact - catch a few molecules as opposed to a group that overwhelms you.

Hindsight is 20/20 vision.

The Govt has been appalling in this respect, lie after lie after lie. The promise of 100k per day which changed to capacity for and now is booking for 50k.

Hindsight doestn't come into it, we could see what was happening to other countries and chose the wrong path. I takes balls to admits to mistakes and we're not going to see any of that happening soon.

 

[macabethiel]

The Govt has been appalling in this respect, lie after lie after lie. The promise of 100k per day which changed to capacity for and now is booking for 50k.

Hindsight doestn't come into it, we could see what was happening to other countries and chose the wrong path. I takes balls to admits to mistakes and we're not going to see any of that happening soon.

There has been a greater emphasis on using words like Capacity to test rather than Physical Test numbers.

We have been told we are following the science but the trouble is the science is pretty thin on the ground.

Apparently the Chineses had identified quite early on that smokers are more resistant to the infection and the seriousness if they get one. Apparently the Nicotine that bonds to the lung receptors is though to be blocking the infection pathway!

Some Hospital treatments not known if in the UK have included Nicotene Patches !

 

[don simon]

There has been a greater emphasis on using words like Capacity to test rather than Physical Test numbers.

We have been told we are following the science but the trouble is the science is pretty thin on the ground.

Apparently the Chineses had identified quite early on that smokers are more resistant to the infection and the seriousness if they get one. Apparently the Nicotine that bonds to the lung receptors is though to be blocking the infection pathway!

Some Hospital treatments not known if in the UK have included Nicotene Patches !

Much like Rick's immunity, the nicotine claim would appear to be purely anecdotal. I found this while Googling "smoking cures covid-19" https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-on-smoking-and-covid-19
There are plenty of other scientific studies under that search which seem to agree with WHO. The Chinese figures are sketchy, at best, so I wouldn't be putting too much faith in what they're saying. Full facts are difficult to find at the moment, but learning from the experience of others would appear to be the way forward. I, for one, would like to have more faith in our leaders, but they have proven themselves to be liars and misleading. We could have reduced the damage, both mortality rates and to the economy, if they had acted in our best interests. Why are we still letting people enter the country without testing them?

 

[solarman216]

We have a good number of members on here connected or involved with healthcare and government etc, so can those that know please tell me by which process it can be shown that this lock down has in any way reduced the number of deaths due to the virus, what reference group did they use? if there is one! my simple mind says if you want to test a new drug you take a group of people, split them in half and one lot gets the drug the others get a placebo, so please explain when the whole country is locked how this works, Rick

 

[macabethiel]

This is what I think we are doing.

We have a good number of members on here connected or involved with healthcare and government etc, so can those that know please tell me by which process it can be shown that this lock down has in any way reduced the number of deaths due to the virus, what reference group did they use? if there is one! my simple mind says if you want to test a new drug you take a group of people, split them in half and one lot gets the drug the others get a placebo, so please explain when the whole country is locked how this works, Rick

My understanding and I could be wrong is that the lockdown was intended to reduce the rapid spread so our hospitals could cope with the number of people needing ventilators at the same time.

As an example say the virus was expected to kill 50,000 without lock down in a 3 months and we have only 10,000 ventilators. Those deaths would form a graph with a nasty peak where we could not cope with the sheer numbers every day of patients needing a ventilator.

I do not know the figures but lets say half those on full ventilators go on to make a full recovery. The rate of hospitalization would be so great that those needing a ventilator that would have survived go on to die as they have no ventilators left.

By reducing the rate of infection with social distancing and lock down everyone who needs a ventilator will get one - this is flattening the curve. - the rate of spread. Until we have reached Herd Immunity - I think that is where at least 70% of the population have had and recovered from the virus. That further slows the spread but the reality is that those who will eventually get Covid 19 and go on to die in or out of hospital is not reduced just that its a more manageable monthly death rate.

We will only reduce that last figure when we have a vaccine. The lives we save are those that are discharged from hospital after recovering as we have the capacity to ventilate them.

 

[solarman216]

Lovely answer Ted but it does not actually answer the Question, how do we know that if we had carried on working the results might have been exactly the same? I remain unconvinced that "social distancing" is a valid method for controlling this virus, Rick

 

[macabethiel]

Lovely answer Ted but it does not actually answer the Question, how do we know that if we had carried on working the results might have been exactly the same? I remain unconvinced that "social distancing" is a valid method for controlling this virus, Rick

FFS Rick - no offence - the virus is spread from person to person by direct contact or indirect contact from being close to someone who has the virus. How do you think its spreads ??

People are moaning we locked down too late already and lost lives.

If we carried on all working just the same then the spread would have been faster one infected person in a workplace gives it two others, they then go on to infect their families when they get home from work. The other members of that that work family then go to their workplace and pass it on at their work etc etc.

The bit that stays the same is those who die in hospital or at home from the virus anyway but we get survivors who respond to hospital oxygen & ventilation.

If 30 k die in hospital there will be 30k survivors assuming a 50% survival rate with oxygen treatment - lives saved as there is a ventilator available. If the 60k who were hospitalized have a Ventilator available this will be by controlling the spread to a manageable figure.

 

[solarman216]

Sorry Ted as far as I read the boffins do not yet know how it is spread, they are all chasing their tails looking for an answer, the best they have come up with is minute water droplets exhaled from a persons lungs (cough, sneeze, or just breathing) which others breath in, if this is the case, (and I hasten to add they are still not sure at this point, or at least I have seen no update on it) then social distancing would be futile, which means in my simple book we have been spreading it wholesale right from the beginning, I will look up the boffins who stated that suggestion and post it when I find it, Rick

 

[macabethiel]

I think part of the mechanism that is well understood is the influenza type behaviour of spread. What is not understood is why the spread of infection varies in different populations, housing density, demographics etc. I for one accept the basic premis of it being contagious from person to person in close proximity. If you look at the disproportionate number of Doctors that have died in Italy. One possibility is the intensity of exposure overwhelms even the fittest. Sorry Rick don't mean to be snappy.

 

[solarman216]

I think part of the mechanism that is well understood is the influenza type behaviour of spread. What is not understood is why the spread of infection varies in different populations, housing density, demographics etc. I for one accept the basic premis of it being contagious from person to person in close proximity. If you look at the disproportionate number of Doctors that have died in Italy. One possibility is the intensity of exposure overwhelms even the fittest. Sorry Rick don't mean to be snappy.

No offence taken Ted and I do value your input, you have a logical mind, I like others are just seeking answers and I do at this time seriously think the lock down was ill founded and is doing more damage than good, as I said earlier, when someone can positively show me it has saved more lives than the result of the lock down ie job losses, suicides due to that and a whole host of other deaths not related to Corona, then I will continue to think it is seriously in error, Rick

 

[macabethiel]

Consequential Deaths factor

I'm with you on consequential deaths such as some non urgent treatments that turn out to be fatal. Then as a result of mental illness or depression that leads to more suicides than normal (6-7 thousand a year is average).

To offset that a reduction in road deaths and train suicides will drop. An aircraft will not crash etc. Then of course domestic murders will probably increase.

Had the government done nothing that would have really given the media something to moan about & distort.

As regards the way Convid 19 spreads the WHO view is pretty solid if you look it up.

 

[don simon]

I'm with you on consequential deaths such as some non urgent treatments that turn out to be fatal. Then as a result of mental illness or depression that leads to more suicides than normal (6-7 thousand a year is average).

To offset that a reduction in road deaths and train suicides will drop. An aircraft will not crash etc. Then of course domestic murders will probably increase.

Had the government done nothing that would have really given the media something to moan about & distort.

As regards the way Convid 19 spreads the WHO view is pretty solid if you look it up.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the govt has done virtually nothing. The Chancellor has given us the furlough scheme, but ultimatey, us, the tax payer, will be paying for it (it's unlikely to be the billionaires or corporations who pick up the tab).
The govt gave us lockdown (unless you want to go out- the policing and penalties are minimal). This is why we saw campers heading into Wales at Easter, potentially bringing the virus with them ("potentially" as there are no sodding tests).
Testing has been negligible and the supply of ventilators and PPE has been shameful. UK manufacturers ignored and exisiting manufacturers closed out of the procurement processes.
Airports are about to require tests and quarrantine, this is 6 weeks after I walked through Liverpool airport unchallenged, the same day Atleti fans were coming in for the mass gathering at Anfield. The same time the govt allowed Cheltenham races to go ahead. We can't say we had no guidance as both Spain and Italy were ahead of us at that stage.
With all this govt activity and advanced warning, we have managed to achieve the 5th highest death rate globally, that's using the govt's manipulated figures- real figures are potentially double that, but that is speculative. 20, 000 dead. Think about it.
Had the govt not run down the NHS, had the govt offered a full lockdown with £1,000 fines, had the govt controlled movement, had the govt tested, had the govt provided the NHS with ventilators and PPE, had the govt actually done something proactive we would be looking at far fewer deaths.
This govt is an embarrassing shambles, just look at how other countries have dealt with the virus to see how embarrassing this cabal is.