I think UK is better off staying in. But then again, I'm Belgian, not living in the UK, and working for the EU institutions.
A few reasons:
- with UK out, EU has no incentive to control illegal immigrants trying to get to the UK. In other words: the more people get to the UK, the less we have in our own countries.
- EU subsidies will cease. Biggest chunk: agriculture. Meaning a lot less income for your farmers, and a lot more for EU farmers (since the total expenditure will not change)
- all trade agreements will have to be renegotiated, a process taking months if not years. During that time, very difficult export from UK to EU (your biggest export market...)
- cost of exports will rise, with as direct result most likely several car companies leaving the UK. They are now in the UK because labour costs are lower than on the continent - but with export taxes rising, and a lot of empty factories and unemployment in Spain, Portugal, Greece.. who knows.
- More on export: even after brexit, if you want to export your products to the continent, they will have to conform to our regulations. So nothing changes. One might say manufacturers will make 2 models, for export and for UK use, but that hardly is economical.
- No more free traffic of people, and no more benefits for UK people living in Europe. Funnily enough, those living outside UK for >15 years have no say in the matter.
- Your current issue with immigrants will not be solved. You might be able to better control economic immigration (cf the Eastern Europeans coming to the UK), but what with those already there? And of course, they are there for a reason: because there is a lot of low-grade badly paid manual work to be done. Who will do it after the brexit?
- comparisons with Norway are a bit lopsided, since unlike Norway, the UK does not have almost unlimited income from offshore oil and gas.
- tourism: if travelling to / from the UK will get even more difficult than it already is, casual tourists will look elsewhere. Heavy border controls, lots of waiting around in airports, cars being checked vs just hopping in the car and driving to a neighbouring capital city.